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It appears that bankers are nervous this weekend, wondering what will happen on Monday.
Banks brace for 'big bang' switch on $80 trillion worth of swaps
It's being called the "big bang," and it has derivatives traders on high alert.
In a critical development in the global shift away from old benchmarks that was triggered by Libor's shortcomings, interest-rate swaps on more than $80 trillion in notional debt will transition this weekend to a new rate for determining their value....
The big bang "will have a very, very good impact on liquidity," said Jason Granet, chief Libor transition officer at Goldman Sachs Group Inc....
"The big banks are very prepared for the big bang," said Van Vredenburch. "But do I think the smaller banks are ready for this? Not even close." When it comes to the overall switch to SOFR, he said, "there are so many nuances to the transition and the devil is in the details. There is nothing simple in all this."
No one seems to know what will happen, or are not saying, so this is just something to watch. The bankers seem certain that there will be some volatility in the markets and perhaps in the value of some currencies. I suspect that this could cause a collapse of some weak currencies such as Iran, Syria, Egypt, or Venezuela. Those seem to be the most vulnerable right now. But others are vulnerable as well.
Anyway, October 18 (Sunday) has been on my radar for the past month as a watch date. So when I saw this article, it caught my eye. Watch Sunday and Monday.
A few days ago the IMF called for "A new Bretton Woods moment." The Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 in the midst of World War 2 is being likened to the Pandemic in 2020 with a new monetary arrangement. The Bretton Woods agreement fell apart in 1971 when Nixon took the US dollar off the gold standard. It has been 49 years now, and we are due for a Jubilee.
What do they have in mind?