BLOG

Tariffs and trade wars

The purpose of the Ukraine war, as stated by Senator Lindsey Graham and other western officials, was to weaken Russia without costing any American lives. So also, we can say that the reason for the insistence that Ukraine join NATO was to provoke this war in order to weaken Russia, while at the same time being able to blame Russia for invading Ukraine.

But after 3 full years of war, both Europe and America have nearly run out of military hardware and finances. Meanwhile, Russia is in a better financial and military position now than it was in 2022 when Russia actively became involved in the defense of Russians being bombarded in the east. This situation was well known to me and many others who listened to the experts instead of government-controlled media, which got all of its “information” directly from Kyev.

Then Trump came into office. When Tulsi Gabbard took over as the Director of National Intelligence, she quickly informed Trump of the real situation, and we saw him start to set forth a more truthful analysis. At the same time, the state of the US economy was in a sorry state, and Trump was very concerned about this. Wars are very expensive, and America’s finances are not without limits.

So Trump set about to find an end to the Ukraine war without actually admitting defeat and without admitting that the US government was the real (but largely hidden) cause of the war. On February 28 we all witnessed the argument between Trump and Zelensky that was televised around the world. I was struck by Trump’s comment toward the end. He said that he had allowed this exchange to go on in front of the cameras in order to show the people the situation.

That implies that Trump had anticipated—or even planned—for this to happen, although I am sure it played out quite naturally. The American public focused on Zelensky’s disrespect, not only by his words but also by his refusal to dress for the occasion. Senator Lindsey Graham, a long-time Zelensky friend, immediately did a 180-degree turn and condemned Zelensky. Trump’s popularity rating (in America) rose once again, indicating Trump’s success.

Trump then announced a suspension of all military aid, even stopping a shipment in Poland that was on its way. Zelensky had to back down, express his appreciation for America’s past assistance, and declare his intention to sign the papers regarding rare earth metals. He expressed his “regrets” for the argument but stopped short of apologizing for his disrespect. In fact, he made a point of demanding to meet with Trump next week as “equals”. But there is no real equality between beggars and donors.

But what about the perceptions around the world, which are shaped largely by CNN, which is not a truth organization but an anti-Trump organ of the Democratic Party? Much of the world thought that Trump had berated Zelensky and that Zelensky was only defending himself. The whole matter was portrayed very differently, depending on the news source. Each side (for example, CNN vs FOX) exists to shape public opinion, not simply to report what happened. We all need to be aware of this when listening to their reporting.

It seems to me that Trump wanted to end the war, and Zelensky walked into his trap. Zelensky, of course, deserved the beating that he got, after following orders from the CIA since he was elected on a “peace with Russia” political platform. But another lesson to be learned here is that those national leaders who ally with the US should understand that Americans are patriotic enough to support short wars, but they do not like endless wars and are willing to protest against their own government if wars go on for too long.

The result of this is that America tends to cast aside its allies when convenient. The word of the US government cannot be trusted. In 1969 it passed a bill that allows it to lie to the American public as well, and under Obama (if I recall), a new department of propaganda was established. All of this has brought many Americans back to the mindset from the late 1700’s. The American constitution was written to put strict limits on the power of government because the founders had a deep mistrust of government itself.

The point is that many national leaders are now having to reassess their trust in the US government. As Henry Kissinger once remarked, “It is dangerous to be America’s enemy, but fatal to be its friend.” Hence, the spat between Trump and Zelensky, even if pre-planned, will no doubt have unintended consequences.

Watch for nations to move toward the BRICS alliance more quickly in the future, believing that the BRICS organization is more reliable. Many nations are already worried that the US may sanction them, cut them off from the SWIFT system of international payments, or even steal their deposits in western banks. The Trump-Zelensky feud can only reinforce their jitters and make them yearn for the multi-polar world order that the BRICS are advocating.

In 1991 the US emerged as the sole superpower, and this solidified the American Empire. But that is being challenged today, primarily by Russia and China, known prophetically as the kings from the east (Revelation 16:12).

Trump wants to “Make America Great Again.” I wonder how he defines “great.” If it means subjecting the rest of the world to US hegemony, I cannot support it. If it means making other nations fear us (as is often stated), I prefer to advocate the Kingdom of God, which is based on love and equal justice for all.

Trump’s favorite weapon, it seems, is tariffs. His argument in last night’s speech before Congress is that other countries have imposed tariffs on US products for decades, so now the US will impose equal tariffs in return. In other words, most tariffs have been directed at the US in the past, but he says that he is now leveling the playing field.

I have not done a deep study on tariffs, but I have known for 50 years that many countries have imposed tariffs on certain US products. So I suspect that Trump is correct in that way. Seeing that, a case can be drawn up to say that Trump did not start this tariff war but is seeking to end it by retaliation in kind.

Nonetheless, there are consequences to every action. A tariff war is still a war and tends to create enemies. World trade could quickly freeze up, affecting everyone. Trade itself is one of the best ways to avoid hot wars, so tariffs can also be a way to cause hot wars. In fact, most wars are fought over economic interests, including the desire to steal resources from other nations.

The need for war is often to pay for an overextended military. America has more than 750 military bases around the world, which drains our resources. By contrast, China has focused its attention on building its economy through trade deals. Economic power is real power.

This makes me nervous about Trump’s statements calling Canada our 51^st state, or buying Greenland, or taking over the Panama Canal. If this is accomplished by power politics or military intervention, I would not be able to support it. If it can be a win-win situation for everyone, so that the majority on each side are happy, then so be it.

We will have to continue watching to see Trump’s methods of making America great again.